Long-run laboratory · repeatable trials
Blackjack long-run simulator and variance calculator.
Configure independent blackjack sessions, then inspect bankroll paths, drawdown, outcome ranges and convergence with the rules, seed and method kept in view.
A fixed specimen shows the workspace before an authoritative run starts.
The visible charts are a fixed interface preview. They are not a live simulation, forecast or gambling result.
Long-run summary
- Mean return
- −3.4 creditsper 500-hand specimen session
- Middle 80% range
- −88 to +76virtual credits at session end
- Median max drawdown
- 41 creditsfixed preview path set
- Completed trials
- 10,000illustrative only
Bankroll paths
A selected specimen path shows how cumulative virtual-credit return can move across resolved hands.
- Virtual credits
- Independent-session preview v1
illustrative-long-run-workspace-v1
Open semantic data table
| Resolved hands | Virtual-credit profit |
|---|---|
| 0 | |
| 4 | |
| -8 | |
| 12 | |
| 6 | |
| -19 | |
| -7 | |
| -24 | |
| -15 | |
| 3 | |
| -9 | |
| -2 | |
| -28 | |
| -17 | |
| -31 | |
| -12 | |
| -20 | |
| -6 | |
| -18 | |
| -4 | |
| -14 |
Mean return convergence
The running estimate narrows toward its disclosed preview band as more independent trials are included.
- Virtual credits per session
- Independent-session preview v1
illustrative-long-run-workspace-v1
Open semantic data table
| Independent trials included | Mean session return |
|---|---|
| -7.8 | |
| -5.9 | |
| -5.1 | |
| -4.5 | |
| -3.9 | |
| -3.6 | |
| -3.5 | |
| -3.4 |
Drawdown profile
Distance below the prior path peak makes the depth and duration of losing sequences visible.
- Virtual credits below peak
- Independent-session preview v1
illustrative-long-run-workspace-v1
Open semantic data table
| Resolved hands | Drawdown from prior peak |
|---|---|
| 0 | |
| 0 | |
| -12 | |
| 0 | |
| -6 | |
| -31 | |
| -19 | |
| -36 | |
| -27 | |
| -9 | |
| -21 | |
| -14 | |
| -40 | |
| -29 | |
| -43 | |
| -24 | |
| -32 | |
| -18 | |
| -30 | |
| -16 | |
| -26 |
Trial outcome range
Independent session endings are grouped into descriptive virtual-credit bands.
| Outcome band | Trials | Share | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below −80 credits | 900 | 9% | Lower outcome tail |
| −80 to −20 credits | 2,300 | 23% | Negative session range |
| −20 to +20 credits | 3,900 | 39% | Near-even session range |
| +20 to +80 credits | 2,200 | 22% | Positive session range |
| Above +80 credits | 700 | 7% | Upper outcome tail |
Method and reproducibility
A result is only meaningful with its rules, strategy, seed, trial count and implementation identities attached.
The visible charts are a fixed interface preview. They are not a live simulation, forecast or gambling result.
- Method
- Fixed editorial specimen
- Model
- Independent-session preview v1
- Ruleset
- American Blackjack · 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · double after split
- Seed
- blackjack-index-preview-v1
- Trials
- 10,000 · 500 hands per independent trial
- Confidence
- Illustrative band · not statistically estimated
- Dataset
- illustrative-long-run-workspace-v1
- Engine
- Not connected
- Worker
- Not connected